Economic Events to Watch: April 29 - May 1, 2025

Overview of Upcoming Economic Reports

As we approach the end of April and the beginning of May 2025, various economic indicators are scheduled for release that will provide insight into the health of the U.S. economy. These indicators are crucial for investors, policy makers, and economists alike as they can significantly influence market behavior and economic policy. Key reports expected this week include consumer confidence levels, job openings, and manufacturing performance metrics.

Consumer Confidence and Job Openings

On Tuesday, April 29, 2025, the consumer confidence index will be released at 10:00 AM (ET). This index is projected to stand at 87.4, a notable decline from the previous month's figure of 92.9. A decrease in consumer confidence can signal decreased spending and economic activity.

Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports that there are expected to be 7.480 million job openings in March, down from 7.568 million in the previous reading. This decline suggests potential weaknesses in job creation or a slowdown in hiring, which will be essential to monitor as the economy continues to recover.

Key Manufacturing and Employment Indicators

On Wednesday, April 30, 2025, several reports will be on the docket. The ADP nonfarm employment change for April is forecasted at 123,000 jobs added, which is significantly lower than the anticipated 155,000 jobs from the previous month. This figure provides an early look at job trends prior to the official employment report, helping to gauge the labor market's direction.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025 will also be revealed at 8:30 AM (ET), with a month-over-month growth rate forecasted at a modest 0.4%, compared to a more robust 2.4% recorded previously. This reduction could indicate that economic growth is slowing, possibly influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Further on the same day, the Chicago PMI will offer insights into manufacturing activity, expected to come in at 45.9, a decrease from 47.6. Manufacturing performance remains a key indicator of overall economic health.

The release of the core PCE price index, which measures the price changes of personal consumption expenditures, will also occur at 10:00 AM (ET) on Wednesday. This gauge is crucial for understanding inflation trends, with the year-over-year figure projected at 2.8%, while the month-over-month is forecasted at just 0.1%. Monitoring these numbers is essential for assessing inflation risk moving forward.

Looking Ahead: Initial Jobless Claims and PMI Indicators

On Thursday, May 1, 2025, initial jobless claims will be reported at 8:30 AM (ET), with expectations slightly rising to 224,000 from the previous figure of 222,000. Jobless claims data can provide insight into the labor market's strength amidst the recovering economy.

Additionally, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted to rise to 50.7 from 50.2, while the ISM manufacturing PMI is projected to show decline to 48.0, down from 49.0. These readings can influence market perceptions of manufacturing health, which is vital for the broader economy.

In summary, the upcoming economic indicators for the end of April and the start of May will offer crucial insights into consumer confidence, employment, and manufacturing—providing a clearer picture of the U.S. economic landscape.